We won't give it back

Yes, we will talk about the Defending Champions in today's post. Before we look ahead, lets look back a bit, what has transpired since that night at Wankhede, super-briefly. What has happened is that the middle generation of Indian cricket has not quite had their desired end. All knew that Tendulkar was to retire post 2011, but not many were absolutely sure that Sehwag, Gambhir, Yuvraj and Harbhajan will not play the next world cup. That has pretty much been THE problem for India. It is only because of the vast batting talent India has been blessed with that this shortfall has not severely impacted results. But the same has not quite happened with bowling, which is where India's problem lies.
So lets begin with a look at our batting:

I do not see much problems here. If India bats keeping in mind there are 50 overs to go, the batsmen have it in them to consistently put up more than decent totals. That has not been happening, what happens is whenever a batsman has faced some dots and the innings is in a lull, the reaction is to come down the wicket and slog. Needless to say, looks brave when comes off, horrendous when it doesn't. The point is to curb that - but I do not think that is possible, as release shots are ingrained and inherent to a batsman.  Where India is losing the way is not conserving wickets at the start. There has been improvement - batsmen do take their time and we also reach 40-60 for 0/1 in 15-17 overs. The problem starts after that - for the next 5-6 overs, invariably batsmen feel its time to move a gear. What the batsmen need to realize is that it is ok to go like that even till the 25-26th over. India shouldn't mind being 105-1/2 by the 25th over. Currently, we are losing our way from the 12-25th overs. That is one thing the batsmen should work on, and which will be very interesting to observe.
                     One other thing regarding the batting is the order. Ajinkya Rahane has to play, and the position most suited to him is no.3. He is not a slogger, but can play well against the new ball. So, he is the ideal man to come in after a wicket goes down - and across matches, this would happen, inside the 1st 15 overs. That leaves Virat Kohli at no.4, which again is ideal. All the talk of coming in at 1 down and 'dictating' the innings does not make much sense to me, to say the very least. Absolutely no point taking the risk of losing him versus the new ball. It is not that he is not good enough, but given the current form and the conditions in general, where no batsman is quite safe, it would be prudent to have him at 2 down. It solidifies the middle order too, and Kohli can inflict severe damage at the death. And coming at no.4 will give him more chances to do that.

And next we check out what has been discussed as much as the Delhi elections it seems. The bowling:

 Lack of a spearhead, experience and fitness sum up the problems. Mohammed Shami and Umesh Yadav have pace but lack consistency to string 6 balls directed at the 4th stump on a good length.  They have been bowling way too back of length and frequently drifted towards middle and leg. Bhuvneshwar Kumar is unfit and even if he regains fitness, it is highly doubtful whether he would be effective. Mohit Sharma is consistent, but lacks pace and penetration. Although he hits the deck, so he should get some purchase from the hard, bouncy pitches down under.
                     Because the pace attack is failing to take wickets, the spinners are unable to maintain pressure in the middle overs. Here too, Ravindra Jadeja has just recovered from injury and needs to bowl more and more. He is a vital cog in the scheme of things - as he turns the ball away from the right-hander,for me, he would be more effective than Ashwin. But still, I do not believe spin is an area of concern, at least not as much as pace. If the pace bowlers fire, or even just bowl decently, spinner/s should come into the game.
                    And of course, there is our curse of the death overs. It has been ages now, since we have had a death over specialist bowler. Zaheer Khan was one, but even he was more effective only when there was 1 ball instead of 2, which got scruffed up for reverse in the dusty subcontinent pitches. With the inexperience we have, the problem is even more pronounced. Potentially, Shami, Mohit and Jadeja should bowl the bulk of the death overs. Shami has the ability to bowl full and straight towards the end, while Mohit bowls the deceptive back of the hand slower ball, which is very difficult to get away. 

Lets talk about the team composition. I think Rohit, Dhawan,Kohli, Rahane,Raina, MSD, Shami, Yadav, Mohit would select themselves. That leaves two spots and 3 contenders - Binny, Ashwin, Jadeja and Axar Patel. It obviously depends on the pitches, timings and the opposition, but for any ground except maybe Perth(WACA) and Brisbane(Gabba), I would go with Jadeja and Ashwin. And make it a point to give Axar Patel a few games, so that if either of the spinners go off the boil, I would be itching to play him. Make no mistake, he is a better spinner than Jadeja, but Jadeja adds a semblance of balance to the side, more so than Axar. India play UAE at Perth, so I won't be averse to trying out Stuart Binny there.He has done fairly well whenever given a chance, but to include him will be a very difficult decision, particularly given the comfort MSD enjoys with spinners.Infact, that will be one of the major issues - because the previous WC was in the sub-continent, India had a player like Yuvraj who bowled 10 overs, kept things tight, took wickets and of course we all know what he did with the bat. We do not have anyone to do the corresponding role on the hard and bouncy pitches down under.

India's games versus associates will not be a cakewalk. An upset is possible for any team, but considering India wins, it will not do so comprehensively against any of them. Simply because of the dodgy bowling prospects, I feel there would not be much change in the totals teams put up against India. I do not see India restricting any of the teams less than 240. And it should not be an issue, as I would back India to score 250 + versus all of them.

I know a team should focus on the next game, aim to win and think nothing else. But, if India does get in such a situation, it should try and finish 2nd in the pool and setup a quarter-final clash at the SCG, which would be versus the Lankans. I feel that is the best chance to progress to the semis, from where it is anyone's cup.

What's up down under!!!

So, 4 years have passed since that unforgettable night when MS Dhoni slammed Nuwan Kulasekara over long-on to create cricketing history, and the Cricket World Cup is upon us. Straight to the point then – which are the teams to lookout for? Who would be the players that can make this event their own? Read on….

Australia

They are not yet the Australia that won 3 WCs back to back, but they are very close to those teams. Warner and Finch to start, both can play in all gears, can be watchful , explosive or consolidating. Yes, Warner can do all three. But I think they have a headache, hopefully a pleasant one, in the middle-order. They like to play Watson because of the balance he provides, which means that only two of Clarke, Bailey and Smith can play. And Watson has not been in sizzling form, so some early wickets is the only way teams can put pressure on them. But then there is Maxwell - teams will not quite like the idea of Maxwell coming in early! 

Bowling too is penetrating and diverse. The Mitchells swing the bowl at pace, Hazlewood is a hit the deck and seam bowler, while Faulkner keeps things steady and is excellent at the death. Infact, Australia have 2 excellent death bowlers in Faulkner and Starc. Again, one niggle they have is spin in the middle overs.Doherty is a canny bowler though - keeps things very tight.

But all the glitches notwithstanding, very hard to see who will beat them, particularly at home.

New Zealand

They are not the 'Dark-horses' anymore. They are a strong unit playing at home which has raised the expectations. 

Guptill and McCullum to start, a solid middle order of Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor and a lethal death charge of Corey Anderson and Luke Ronchi. They have covered their bases in bowling as well - Swing, seam and pace by Southee and Boult at the start and at the death. Momentum will be sustained with either of McClenaghan, Milne and Matt Henry in the middle overs. And of course the cunning Daniel Vettori as the tweaker. Anderson as well to keep things at a leash - though he will get carted for runs I feel. Make no mistake, their strength is pace - Boult, Milne and Henry can bowl at 150 while Southee and  McClenaghan can clock 143+. Not many attacks in the world boast of such prowess at the moment. 

But interesting to see how they perform with the favorites tag, as they are certainly expected to reach atleast the semis. This would be a new experience for them.

South Africa

They have always been among the favorites to win World Cups. And it is no different this time round. Classy batting order - Amla, DeVilliers, DuPlessis. Power in the form of David Miller. Bowling stocks are aplenty and full of variety. Conventional swing-at-pace-bowler Dale Steyn, ruffle-the-batsman-with-extra-bounce-bowler Morne Morkel and hit-the-deck-nick-the-batsman-bowler Vernon Philander. Imran Tahir would not be easy to play against, and JP Duminy is also a handful. Death bowling looks a bit dodgy, none of the above are quite known for death bowling, Wayne Parnell would come in handy, if they are able to play him. One guy they are persisting with and about whom I am not at all sure is Farhaan Berhardien. Is a lower middle order bat and a part time seam up bowler. A waste of a spot according to me.

The only question, as ever, for the Africans is : Will they choke?

England

Bowling set, batting not so. This would sum up England. James Anderson, Chris Woakes, Stuart Broad and Steve Finn will give any side a run for their money. It is an obvious fact that the conditions will suit them, although the timings and venues do not. They would revel in day games bowling first scenarios, but bowling in the afternoon in small New Zealand stadiums can prove to be their undoing. They can get one dimensional and set batsmen would just bat them out of the game. Irrespective of what the experts say, I am not entirely convinced about Moeen Ali the spinner. Sensible batsmen would find him quite straight-forward. Only catch is they need to be sensible, which is somehow proving to be a daunting task when they see Moeen Ali after James Anderson and Steve Finn have tested them inside out.

They are a good side though and can use the conditions to their advantage. Absence of Ben Stokes would hurt - a real bad selection that.

Sri Lanka

They have been in the knockouts of tournaments consistently, but this time their entry into semis looks dodgy. As always, they will rely on their batting triumvirate to sail them through waters - be it rough or smooth. And this has the obvious problem of consistency - it will hard for them to fire every time, particularly in conditions amenable to bowlers. And talking of bowlers, it seems they are a bit out of depth here. Malinga and Kulasekara are formidable, but are not quite effective as past times. They have good spinners though, Herath can turn and Senanayake will get extra bounce and if Sri Lanka manage to play them both, then they can turn on the pressure, particularly with runs on the board. They would miss Dhammika Prasad, who would have been effective with pace, bounce and sling death bowling ala Malinga.

So, not quite the force, but as mentioned, they do find ways to get into knockouts. Cant really count them out.

Pakistan

 Much has been said and written about their unpredictable nature, so I won't go into it. Batting looks solid, Ahmed Shehzad can turn it on at the start, Misbah and Younis Khan can anchor and stabilize the innings. Umar Akmal and Sohaib Maqsood would be extremely useful and coupled with a canny Sarfaraz Ahmed and boom-boom, the batting unit has enough. And for a rare occasion, it looks better than the bowling. Apart from Md Irfan and Wahab Riaz, Pakistan could find it tough to put up consistently good bowling performances. Rahat Ali is a good bowler, but remains to be seen whether he can step up. 

West Indies

Some inexplicable selections have dampened their prospects, but still they remain a dangerous side, easily capable of making the semis. Explosive openers - Smith and Gayle, solid middle order - Lendl Simmons, Darren Bravo and Marlon Samuels, and firepower galore with Darren Sammy and Andrew Russell. Lendl Simmons can be used as a floater and would be a key batsman. Bowling can trouble batsmen on their day with Kemar Roach at the start and Jerome Taylor at the death. Suleiman Benn will extract bounce, so it will not be easy to play him. Just think if we could add Dwayne Bravo, Kieran Pollard, Ravi Rampaul and Sunil Narine to this mix. Sky would have been the limit. Still, a formidable side.

Associates

Zimbabwe 

Batting looks decent - Brendan Taylor, Hamilton Masakadza, Sean Williams, Craig Ervine can put up significant amount of runs on the board while Elton Chigumbura can accelarate towards the end. Bowling is suspect. Really suspect.

Afghanistan

Looking forward to some good performances by them. They are decent in both the aspects. They have a good bowling attack - their opening bowlers Dawlat Zadran and Hamid Hassan bowl in good areas at pace and they have a canny left arm spinner in Md Nabi. Batting too looks decent with Nawroze Mangal, Asghar Stanikzai and Samiullah Shenwari. Any team that takes them lightly will do so at their own peril.

Ireland

They have proved time and again that they are not there to make up the numbers and we can expect some fighting performances from them. Captain Porterfield, Ed Joyce and Alex Cusack bring tons of experience to batting, Craig Young and Peter Chase bring freshness and pace in their bowling. And we all know about Kevin O Brien.

The rest - UAE, Scotland and Bangladesh would make up the numbers.

Players to watch out for

I will not mention the obvious ones - Williamson, Maxwell, Anderson, Younis Khan, Steyn and so on. But look out for the following

Trent Boult - lesser known than his bowling partner Tim Southee, but will do more damage

Luke Ronchi - a wicket-keeper who can flay the ball - he can play anywhere - open, middle, slog

Aaron Finch - he will get the most overs to bat and will pile on the runs

Sarfaraz Ahmed - from the unconventional wicket-keeper school of Pakistan  - has a good temperament, unorthodox and effective under pressure

Sohaib Maqsood - Can be extremely dangerous in the slog overs. Only problem is if he comes in early, whether he can build an innings or not

Wahab Riaz - he has been injury plagued, but now he is fit. This can be his world cup - has pace, bounce, reverse ( yes, even with 2 new balls)

Jos Buttler - He should be playing at no.4 - seems comfortable playing pace and spin. Has a wide array of shots and is in good nick.

Andrew Rusell - he should be one of the all-rounders of the tournament - can bowl at 145 and more than decent with the bat. And one of the best outfielders going around. 

So, set the alarms and plan breakfast brunches instead of night outs! Let the games begin!!!

P.S. One of the participating teams has not been covered yet. I think a separate post will be required for it :) Keep watching this space!